Understanding Organic Search Ranking Volatility

Organic search rankings can be a rollercoaster ride, with fluctuations occurring not just during major updates but on a day-to-day basis. In this Whiteboard Friday episode, Tom delves into the volatility of organic rankings using data from STAT.

This data, collected during a relatively quiet two-week period, sheds light on the daily fluctuations in Google rankings. The analysis focuses on the MozCast corpus tracked in STAT, covering 10,000 head terms across two suburban locations in the US and the UK, on both smartphone and desktop devices.

Examining the Stability of SERP Positions

The data reveals interesting insights into the stability of SERP positions. At the top of the SERP, approximately 69% of position 1 results maintained the same URL over the entire two-week period. However, as you move down the positions, the stability decreases significantly, with only about 1% of SERPs in position 10 showing consistency in the URL.

Explaining the Trends

Tom proposes two theories to explain these trends. Firstly, positions at the top of the SERP tend to be more stable because there is limited room for movement. However, the more compelling reason may be that there is often a clear winner or top contenders for certain keywords, leading to more stable results. As you move down the SERP, the results become more varied and chaotic.

Understanding Fluctuations in URL Count

Another aspect analyzed is the fluctuation in the number of URLs appearing in SERP positions. Surprisingly, the majority of positions across all SERPs housed four or more URLs, indicating significant variability in rankings.

Factors Contributing to Changes

Several factors contribute to these fluctuations, including Google’s frequent algorithm updates, site changes, and potentially reactive data influencing search results in real-time.

Implications for SEOs

These findings have implications for SEO reporting and decision-making. It’s essential to adopt a holistic approach to reporting, considering the overall trend rather than isolated instances. Similarly, SEOs should avoid overreacting to individual ranking changes and instead focus on understanding the broader context and trends.

In conclusion, organic search rankings exhibit considerable volatility on a day-to-day basis, highlighting the importance of adopting a nuanced approach to SEO analysis and decision-making.